Australia inflation rises to 4.3%, raising the odds of another RBA hike

What happened. At 11:30 am Sydney time on 28 October (00:30 UTC) the ABS released the consumer price index for September. Prices rose 4.3% over the year, up from 4.0% in August. They rose 0.8% in the month, or 0.6% after seasonal adjustment. The trimmed mean, a measure that drops the biggest price swings, was 3.6% over the year, up from 3.5%.

The quarter. Once a quarter the ABS also gives quarterly data. Investing.com reports prices rose 1.3% in July to September after 0.6% in the second quarter, matching forecasts. The quarterly trimmed mean rose 1.0%, while the RBA's numbers implied about 0.8%. Over the year that measure was 3.7%, against 3.6% expected.

What got more expensive. Fuel leads: petrol and diesel up 23.6% over the year and 9.4% in September alone, on higher world oil prices. Transport overall rose 8.7%. Electricity rose 12.8%, mostly because government bill rebates ended. Rents rose 3.6%. Games, toys and hobbies rose 15.5%, which the ABS links to pricier memory and storage chips. Food rose 3.2%, led by meals out and takeaway.

What the RBA says. The cash rate is 4.60%. The last rise, 0.25 points, came on 30 September, the fourth hike this year. Speaking at a parliamentary hearing, Governor Michele Bullock said inflation is "likely to remain elevated for some time". She said a key question is whether the tightening so far will be enough to bring inflation back to target in a reasonable time. She pointed to higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict and capacity limits in the economy.

What analysts expect. Capital Economics, which had expected a pause, now sees a "compelling case" for another 0.25-point hike in November. That is one firm's view, not a decision. AUD/USD rose 0.3% to 0.704 after the data.

Keep in mind. The monthly measure (4.3%) and the quarterly one (3.9% over the year) are built differently, so the numbers do not match. The RBA weighs many data points, including jobs. This is not advice to buy or sell.

Fatos confirmados

• Australia's consumer price index rose 4.3% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 4.0% in August.^[1][2]
• In September the CPI rose 0.8% in original terms and 0.6% seasonally adjusted.^[1]
• Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6% over the year, up from a revised 3.5% in August.^[1]
• Prices rose 1.3% in the September quarter after 0.6% in the prior quarter, in line with forecasts; the quarterly measure's annual rate was 3.9%.^[2]
• The quarterly trimmed mean rose 1.0%, above the RBA's implied 0.8%; annually it was 3.7% against 3.6% expected.^[2]
• Automotive fuel rose 23.6% over the year and 9.4% in September, driven by higher world oil prices; transport overall rose 8.7%.^[1]
• Electricity rose 12.8% over the year, largely due to the end of Commonwealth electricity rebates.^[1]
• Rents rose 3.6% over the year; games, toys and hobbies rose 15.5% as higher memory and storage component prices were passed on.^[1]
• The RBA cash rate target is 4.60% after a 0.25-point rise on 30 September 2026; the rate was raised four times in 2026.^[4]
• At a parliamentary hearing Michele Bullock said inflation is likely to remain elevated for some time and that a key question is whether tightening to date will be sufficient.^[3]
• The next RBA meeting is on 2 to 3 November; the inflation target is 2 to 3%.^[2]
• Capital Economics sees a "compelling case" for another 25-basis-point hike at the next meeting.^[2]
• AUD/USD rose 0.3% to 0.704 after the data.^[2]
• The next ABS consumer price index release is on 25 November 2026.^[1]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoAustralian inflation rose for a second month in a row and stays above the 2 to 3% target.
• Nossa leituraThe chance of an RBA hike in November has gone up.
• Nossa leituraIf oil stays expensive, fuel will keep pushing prices up.
• Nossa leituraVariable-rate mortgages in Australia may cost more if the RBA hikes again.

Ainda não se sabe

• The RBA decision on 2 to 3 November.
• How markets price the odds of a hike in numbers: we did not find it.
• Where oil prices go in November.

Quem é afetado

Australia, Global. People with a mortgage or loan in Australia, and anyone following the AUD and central bank rates

Fontes

1. Australian Bureau of Statistics: Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026 28 de outubro de 2026 · oficial
2. Investing.com: Australia Q3 inflation quickens, bolstering RBA rate hike case 28 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
3. Investing.com: RBA Governor Bullock warns that inflation remains high, to debate more rate hikes 28 de outubro de 2026 · mídia
4. Reserve Bank of Australia: Cash Rate Target 30 de setembro de 2026 · oficial