Fed rate hike in December: Waller backs it, 50 bp is on the table

What Waller said. He spoke at a Bank of England conference in London. The key line: "further tightening of monetary policy will be needed, sooner rather than later." His baseline for December is a 25 basis point hike.

Why 50. Waller said that if inflation is higher than forecast, a 50 basis point hike should be considered in December. His argument is credibility: hiking only 25 basis points would put it at risk, and he is not eager to take that risk.

Not back to back. He also said it is not necessary to raise rates at consecutive meetings. So a pause between moves is possible.

His view of the economy. He says the U.S. economy is growing strongly, with a "low hire, low fire" labor market. Inflation, in his words, remains too high.

How markets moved. The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 14 basis points to 5.004%. The 2-year rose more than 19 basis points to 4.748% and the 30-year more than 11 basis points to 5.367%. Spot gold fell 2.1% to $4,051.50 an ounce. The dollar index rose. Gold pays no interest, so higher yields make it less attractive to hold.

What banks say. Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management called a December hike her firm's base case and said hikes could extend into 2027.

Context. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September and held in October. We covered the October inflation data in a separate story. Our sources have no crypto market reaction, so we do not report one.

Fatos confirmados

• On November 10, 2026, Christopher Waller spoke at a Bank of England conference in London, titled "The Economic Outlook and Some Thoughts on Labor Market Dynamism".^[1][2]
• Waller: "I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC's policy rate at our December meeting."^[1]
• He believes a 50 basis point hike should be considered at the December meeting if inflation is higher than forecast.^[1][2]
• Waller: hiking only 25 basis points would put the Fed's credibility at risk.^[1][2]
• Waller: it is not necessary to raise rates at consecutive meetings.^[1][2]
• Waller: further tightening will be needed "sooner rather than later".^[1]
• Waller said the U.S. economy is growing strongly, the labor market is "low hire, low fire" and inflation remains too high.^[1]
• The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 14 basis points to 5.004%, the 2-year more than 19 basis points to 4.748%, the 30-year more than 11 basis points to 5.367%.^[3]
• After the inflation data, markets fully priced a quarter-point December hike and gave a half-point hike 12.5% odds.^[2]
• Spot gold fell 2.1% to $4,051.50 an ounce. The dollar index rose.^[4]
• Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management called a December hike the firm's base case and said hikes could extend into 2027.^[3]
• The Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September and held in October.^[2]
• Wholesale inflation data is due Friday.^[3]

Implicações

• ConfirmadoThe December Fed meeting has not happened yet, no decision is made.
• Nossa leituraIf rates keep rising, dollar loans and mortgages stay expensive. This is our reading.
• Nossa leituraHigh U.S. yields weigh on gold and support the dollar. This is our reading of the November 10 moves.

Ainda não se sabe

• What the Fed decides in December: 25 basis points, 50 basis points or a pause
• How other committee members will vote
• What Friday's wholesale inflation data will show

Quem é afetado

United States, World. People who follow Fed rates, bonds, the dollar and gold

Fontes

1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: Waller: The Economic Outlook and Some Thoughts on Labor Market Dynamism 10 de novembro de 2026 · oficial
2. CNBC: Fed Governor Waller sees December hike likely, opens door to possible half-point increase 10 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
3. CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield races back to 5% as inflation data, Waller comments drive rate hike expectations 10 de novembro de 2026 · mídia
4. CNBC: Gold falls more than 2% as CPI tops forecasts, lifting dollar and yields 10 de novembro de 2026 · mídia