Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan set rates this week: what to watch

The schedule. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on 27-28 October. This meeting comes without new projections: the Fed calendar shows them only in March, June, September and December. The ECB Governing Council meets on 28-29 October in Frankfurt, with a press conference on the second day. The Bank of Japan meets on 29-30 October and publishes its Outlook Report on 30 October.

Where US rates stand. On 16 September the Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75-4%. The vote was 12-0. The statement said inflation remains elevated. J.P. Morgan Wealth Management wrote on 14 October that it expects a pause in October. It still sees about 0.5 points of further tightening before the cycle ends, with the timing open: October, December or 2027. The same piece notes US inflation rose to 3.7% a year in September, from 3.4% in August.

Where bitcoin stands. Investing.com reports bitcoin at $80,936 at 04:53 GMT on Sunday. On Saturday it dipped to $79,146, its weakest level in more than a month. Over 24 hours more than $810 million of crypto positions were liquidated, about $689 million of them bets on a rise (Coinglass data). Traders are waiting to see whether the Fed holds or tightens further.

How to read the week. If the Fed holds and gives no hint of another hike, markets may relax. If it hints at one, the dollar may firm and risk assets, crypto included, may come under pressure. That is our reading, not a forecast. The same headline often moves prices both ways within hours, so leverage on decision days is extra risky.

已确认的事实

• The FOMC meets on 27-28 October 2026.^[1]
• In 2026 the Fed publishes new economic projections at its March, June, September and December meetings, not in October.^[1]
• On 16 September the Fed raised its target range by 0.25 points to 3.75-4%. The vote was 12-0.^[2]
• The Fed statement of 16 September says inflation remains elevated.^[2]
• The ECB holds its monetary policy meeting on 28-29 October in Frankfurt, with a press conference on 29 October.^[3]
• The Bank of Japan meets on 29-30 October and publishes its Outlook Report on 30 October.^[4]
• At 04:53 GMT on 25 October bitcoin traded at $80,936. On Saturday it dipped to $79,146, its lowest in more than a month.^[5]
• More than $810 million of crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, about $689 million of them bullish bets (Coinglass).^[5]
• J.P. Morgan Wealth Management expects the Fed to pause in October and about 0.5 points more tightening before the cycle ends, timing undetermined.^[6]
• US inflation was 3.7% a year in September, up from 3.4% in August.^[6]

影响

• 已确认The Fed will not update its projections or dot plot in October, so markets will focus on the statement and the press conference.
• 我们的解读Three decisions in a row may add to swings in the dollar, euro, yen and crypto this week.
• 我们的解读If the Fed signals that the next hike is close, pressure on bitcoin may grow.

仍未知

• What the Fed will decide: sources expect a pause, but nothing is certain.
• What the ECB and the Bank of Japan will decide: the sources we opened give no forecasts for them.
• How markets will react to hints about the next steps.

影响到谁

Worldwide, United States, Europe, Japan. Anyone holding crypto, dollars, euros or yen, and anyone who trades the news

来源

1. Federal Reserve: Meeting calendars and information 2026年10月7日 · 官方
2. Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement 2026年9月16日 · 官方
3. European Central Bank: Meetings of the Governing Council and General Council 2026年10月25日 · 官方
4. Bank of Japan: Monetary Policy Meetings schedule 2026年10月25日 · 官方
5. Investing.com: Bitcoin price today: BTC recovers to $80,800 ahead of Fed meeting 2026年10月25日 · 媒体
6. J.P. Morgan Wealth Management: Will the Federal Reserve hike rates at the October 2026 FOMC meeting? 2026年10月14日 · 媒体