Silver price falls to its lowest in nearly a year as oil lifts inflation fears

What happened. Silver fell for a second session in a row. On Thursday, 22 October, front-month futures for October delivery lost 4.6% and settled at $54.764 a troy ounce. It was last this cheap on 26 November 2025. The price is 52% below the January record of $115.08, WSJ reports.

What came next on Friday. December futures opened at $54.69, according to Yahoo Finance. By its count, silver was 4% lower than a week earlier and 17.4% lower than a month earlier, and 12.8% higher than a year earlier. Economic Times reports that spot silver slid 1.2% to $53.8882 an ounce on Friday, its lowest since November 2025. Silver was headed for a weekly decline.

The cause: oil and rates. Yahoo Finance writes that inflation fears are pushing investors away from precious metals, and that the war in Iran, which began on 28 February, has kept energy costs higher. On Friday Brent crude touched a more than five-month high after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, Economic Times reports. Brent gained more than 6% last week, and on Monday morning crude eased a little amid renewed diplomatic efforts, according to Moneycontrol. The 10-year US Treasury yield is near 5%.

Why rates matter for silver. Silver pays no interest or dividends. When bonds pay a lot, holding the metal is less attractive. Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities makes this point in a Moneycontrol comment. He speaks about gold and bullion in general.

What is next on the calendar. The Fed meets on 27 and 28 October. According to CME FedWatch, cited by Economic Times, the chance of a rate hike at this meeting is 9%, and 81% for December. Moneycontrol says the market mostly expects rates to stay unchanged. On Thursday, 29 October, the PCE data comes out, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

India. For readers who follow MCX: on the morning of 26 October (09:05 IST) MCX silver stood at Rs 1,96,803 per kilogram, and on Friday, 23 October, it closed at Rs 1,94,170, Moneycontrol reports. These are rupee prices per kilogram, so they cannot be compared directly with the dollar price per ounce.

What we do not know. We give no price forecasts and no advice to buy or sell. The sources name reasons for the fall, but they do not prove that oil and rates alone set the price of silver. Gold also had a weak week, and we covered it separately.

Confirmed facts

• On Thursday, 22 October 2026, silver futures fell 4.6% and settled at $54.764 a troy ounce in New York, the lowest close since 26 November 2025.^[1]
• That is 52% below the January record of $115.08. Silver fell for a second session in a row.^[1]
• WSJ links the fall to rising oil, which keeps concerns about inflation and higher interest rates alive.^[1]
• December silver futures opened at $54.69 on 23 October, 0.6% below Thursday's close; silver was 4% lower than a week before, 17.4% lower than a month before and 12.8% higher than a year before.^[2]
• Spot silver slid 1.2% to $53.8882 an ounce on 23 October, its lowest since November 2025; silver, palladium and platinum were headed for weekly declines.^[3]
• Inflation fears are pushing investors away from precious metals, and the war in Iran since 28 February has kept energy costs higher, Yahoo Finance writes.^[2]
• Brent crude touched a more than five-month high on 23 October after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia.^[3]
• Brent gained more than 6% last week; on the morning of 26 October crude eased slightly amid diplomatic efforts. The 10-year US Treasury yield is near 5%.^[4]
• The Fed meets on 27 and 28 October. CME FedWatch shows a 9% chance of a hike at this meeting and 81% for December.^[3]
• The market mostly expects rates to stay unchanged; PCE data comes out on 29 October.^[3][4]
• Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities says higher rate expectations and elevated bond yields weigh on bullion by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.^[4]
• MCX silver stood at Rs 1,96,803 per kilogram on the morning of 26 October (09:05 IST); on Friday, 23 October, it closed at Rs 1,94,170 per kilogram.^[4]

Implications

• ConfirmedThe fall is linked to inflation and rate expectations, according to the analysts the sources cite.
• Our readingThe Fed decision and the PCE data could move silver again in either direction.
• Our readingThe MCX rupee price per kilogram cannot be compared directly with the dollar price per ounce.

Still unknown

• What the Fed decides at its 27 and 28 October meeting and what its chair says about December.
• How the PCE data on 29 October affects silver.
• Whether oil stays high amid the diplomatic efforts.
• Which buyers and sellers are behind the fall: the sources do not say.

Who it affects

Global markets, United States, India. People who follow the silver price, hold silver or silver funds, or watch silver on MCX

Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal: Silver Futures Fall to Lowest This Year as Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Risks October 22, 2026 · media
2. Yahoo Finance: Silver price today, Friday, October 23, 2026: Silver prices open at the lowest point in nearly a year October 23, 2026 · media
3. The Economic Times: Gold price today: Gold rate suffers biggest weekly loss since June, Silver price lowest since November 2025 October 23, 2026 · media
4. Moneycontrol: Gold and silver price today, October 26: Check rates of 24K, 22K gold in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata other cities October 26, 2026 · media