Brent crude oil price falls to $94.62, lowest since August 31

What happened. On Wednesday, November 4, oil fell more than 8% and settled at its lowest in more than two months. Brent lost $8.98, or 8.7%, to settle at $94.62 a barrel. WTI, the US benchmark, lost $7.97, or 8.3%, to settle at $88.12. Both are at their lowest since August 31. NBC News called it oil's biggest daily decline since April, and Brent fell below $100 for the first time since October 7.

What came next. On Thursday, November 5, Reuters reported that oil fell for a fourth day. As of 0211 GMT, Brent was at $93.65, down 97 cents (1.03%), and WTI was at $86.98. On Friday, October 30, Brent traded as high as $118, NBC News reported. Oil is still up about 60% since the start of the year.

Why it is falling. The market is betting that the change of power in the US Congress will speed an exit from the US-Israeli war on Iran. Two sources close to Gulf government circles told Reuters that a full-scale assault on Iran now looks less likely. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran and the US remain far from a deal to end the war. Here Iran matters only as a market driver: the price reacts to expectations.

Supply and demand. Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to close to pre-war levels, analysts say, though at a higher cost. JPMorgan estimates the global oil market is back in surplus: 1.1 million barrels a day in September and 1.4 million in October. Vortexa data show Gulf exports of crude, condensate and refined products averaged 17.1 million barrels a day in October, down from 18.9 million in September and roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels.

What it means for fuel. Pump prices follow oil with a lag. In the US, the average gasoline price was $4.12 a gallon on Wednesday morning, 39% above the pre-war level. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan told NBC News it could fall below $4 in the days ahead. US diesel futures fell nearly 7% by midday Wednesday, to their lowest since the end of August. In other countries, the path from oil to the pump depends on the local currency and taxes. Our sources have no data on jet fuel or airfares.

The caveat. Analysts warn the sharp drop may be short-lived. Mukesh Sahdev, CEO of the consultancy XAnalysts, told Reuters that prices are unlikely to stay lower. He noted that the incoming Congress does not take office until January, and that commercial oil inventories in major consuming countries are near their lowest in 15 years. June Goh of Sparta Commodities expects more volatility, because the path to diplomacy is full of unknowns and global strategic reserves have drawn very thin.

Confirmed facts

• On Wednesday, November 4, Brent settled at $94.62 a barrel (down $8.98, or 8.7%) and WTI at $88.12 (down $7.97, or 8.3%).^[1]
• Both benchmarks closed at their lowest since August 31.^[1][2]
• Per NBC News, it was oil's biggest daily decline since April, and Brent fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since October 7.^[3]
• On Thursday, November 5, oil fell for a fourth day: as of 0211 GMT Brent was at $93.65 (down 97 cents, or 1.03%) and WTI at $86.98 (down $1.14).^[2]
• Investors are betting that the Republican Party's loss of control of Congress in the elections could hasten an end to the US-Israeli war on Iran.^[1][2]
• Two sources close to Gulf government circles said a full-scale assault on Iran now looks less likely. A senior Iranian official told Reuters Iran and the US remain far from a deal to end the war.^[1]
• On Friday Brent traded as high as $118 a barrel, and oil is up about 60% since the start of the year.^[3]
• Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to close to pre-war levels, analysts say, though at a higher cost.^[2]
• JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels a day in September and 1.4 million in October.^[2]
• Gulf exports of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, averaged 17.1 million barrels a day in October, down from 18.9 million in September and roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels, per Vortexa.^[1]
• The US average gasoline price was $4.12 on Wednesday morning, 39% above the pre-war level. A GasBuddy analyst expects it to fall below $4 in the days ahead.^[3]
• US diesel futures fell nearly 7% by midday Wednesday, to their lowest since the end of August.^[3]
• Analysts warn the sell-off may prove short-lived: the incoming Congress does not take office until January, and commercial oil inventories in major consuming countries are near their lowest in 15 years.^[2]
• A Sparta Commodities analyst expects more volatility: the path to diplomacy is full of unknowns and global strategic reserves have drawn very thin.^[2]

Implications

• ConfirmedBrent settled at its lowest since August 31, and oil fell for four days in a row.
• ConfirmedThe market is trading expectations of an exit from the war, not a confirmed decision. Analysts say the drop may be short-lived.
• Our readingIf oil stays lower, petrol and diesel in different countries may get cheaper over time. The speed depends on taxes and the exchange rate. That is our reading.

Still unknown

• Whether the price drop will last
• How fast it will reach pump prices in different countries
• What happens to jet fuel prices and airfares
• Whether the war ends and when

Who it affects

World, United States, Middle East, South Africa. Drivers, travellers and investors in different countries, anyone following fuel prices and commodity markets

Sources

1. BusinessWorld (Reuters): Oil slumps after midterm election rebuke to Trump raises bets on Iran war exit November 5, 2026 · media
2. Global Banking & Finance Review (Reuters): Oil falls for a fourth day on expectations for lower risk of Iran war escalation November 5, 2026 · media
3. NBC News: Oil prices drop below $100 as midterms fuel hope for an end to the Iran war November 4, 2026 · media