Denso stock: profit falls 18%, but a 200 billion yen buyback is coming

What happened. Denso, one of the world's largest car parts suppliers, reported results on 29 October for the first half of its fiscal year, which ended on 30 September. Revenue was 3,843.5 billion yen, up 7.0% from a year earlier. Operating profit was 170.1 billion yen, down 19.5%. Net profit was 119.8 billion yen, down 8.8%.

A weaker quarter than expected. Reuters says operating profit for July to September was 86 billion yen, down from 104.2 billion a year earlier, an 18% fall. Analysts in an LSEG poll expected 104.8 billion yen on average.

Why profit is falling. CFO Seiji Maeda says revenue rose on higher vehicle sales and demand for electrification and smart driving products. But profit fell because of rising parts and material costs, investment in future growth and one-time costs. Maeda told reporters that memory and aluminium costs rose the most, Reuters says. Reuters also points to falling vehicle sales in China.

By region. In Japan operating profit rose 55.3% to 49.0 billion yen. In North America it fell 30.7% to 39.5 billion. In Asia it fell 28.0% to 69.1 billion. Europe swung to a loss of 1.4 billion yen from a profit of 8.6 billion a year earlier.

Forecast and payouts. The forecast for the year to March 2027 is unchanged: revenue of 7,750 billion yen and operating profit of 500 billion yen, 9.5% less than last year. The year-end dividend is 74 yen per share. The board approved a buyback of up to 100 million shares (3.99% of shares outstanding) for up to 200 billion yen, from 30 October 2026 to 31 March 2027. It is separate from the roughly 310 billion yen tender offer for the shares held by Toyota Industries, announced in April.

What we do not know. How the shares will close the day and how the buyback will affect the price. This is a summary of the results, not advice to buy or sell.

Confirmed facts

• Denso first-half (April to September 2026) revenue was 3,843.5 billion yen (+7.0%), operating profit 170.1 billion yen (-19.5%), net profit 119.8 billion yen (-8.8%).^[1]
• July to September operating profit was 86 billion yen, versus 104.2 billion a year earlier; the median forecast of nine analysts in an LSEG poll was 104.8 billion yen.^[3]
• CFO Seiji Maeda links the profit fall to rising parts and material costs, investment for future growth and one-time costs.^[1]
• Maeda told reporters that higher memory and aluminium costs contributed heavily to rising costs, according to Reuters.^[3]
• First-half operating profit by region: Japan 49.0 billion yen (+55.3%), North America 39.5 billion (-30.7%), Asia 69.1 billion (-28.0%), Europe a loss of 1.4 billion yen versus a profit of 8.6 billion a year earlier.^[1]
• The forecast for the year to 31 March 2027 is unchanged: revenue 7,750 billion yen, operating profit 500 billion yen (-9.5% year on year); the year-end dividend is 74 yen.^[1]
• Buyback of up to 100 million shares (3.99% of shares outstanding excluding treasury stock) for up to 200 billion yen, from 30 October 2026 to 31 March 2027 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.^[2]
• The buyback is separate from the roughly 310 billion yen tender offer for Denso shares held by Toyota Industries, announced on 28 April 2026.^[2]
• Toyota group companies bring in more than half of Denso's revenue. After the release the shares swung sharply and were last up 2.3%, against a 0.3% gain in the Nikkei 225.^[3]

Implications

• ConfirmedCostlier parts and materials, including memory, are squeezing the supplier's profit even as sales grow.
• Our readingThe buyback may support demand for Denso shares until the end of March.
• Our readingIf memory and aluminium keep getting pricier, the margin pressure may spread to carmakers too.

Still unknown

• How Denso shares will close on 29 October.
• How many shares the company will actually buy: 200 billion yen is a ceiling.
• Whether memory and aluminium prices will keep rising.

Who it affects

Japan, North America, Asia, Europe. People following Denso and Toyota shares, the Japanese market and the car industry

Sources

1. DENSO: DENSO Announces First Half Financial Results October 28, 2026 · official
2. DENSO: Notice Concerning the Repurchase of Shares October 28, 2026 · official
3. Reuters: Toyota supplier Denso posts fall in second-quarter profit October 29, 2026 · media