Gold price today: back above $4,000 ahead of the Fed decision

What happened. On Friday, 23 October, spot gold briefly fell below $4,000 an ounce ($3,998.49 at 2:27 p.m. New York time). According to 24/7 Wall St, that was a three-month low and the first break below $4,000 since mid-July. On Monday, per Kitco, the metal bounced to $4,014.49. Tuổi Trẻ in Vietnam put it near $4,016.74 on the morning of 27 October.

Why it fell. 24/7 Wall St lists several causes. Brent crude traded above $117 amid tension around the Strait of Hormuz. One-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey rose to 4.7%. Traders priced a 78% chance of a Fed hike in December. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.96%. Stock market losses triggered margin calls, and investors sold gold and silver because both can be turned into cash quickly.

Why it bounced. Per Kitco, oil fell about 2% on Monday: Brent near $114, WTI near $101. The 10-year yield eased to about 4.99% from a recent high of 5.31%. That calmed worries that the Fed will tighten policy.

What the market is waiting for. The Fed funds range is 3.75% to 4.00%. Futures show about a 90% chance the Fed holds this week, and about an 80% chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike by December. The decision comes on Wednesday, 28 October, at 2:00 p.m. New York time. On Thursday, September PCE inflation and advance Q3 GDP are due.

Local prices. Tuổi Trẻ gives SJC prices for the morning of 27 October: bars at 138.7 million dong per lượng to buy and 141.7 million to sell. The world price, converted at the current exchange rate, is about 126.2 million dong per lượng before taxes and fees. So the local price is 15.5 million above the converted world price. That is a gap between markets, not a forecast.

Keep in mind. This is not advice to buy or sell gold. We do not know where the price will be after the Fed decision. Our earlier pieces: silver at a one-year low (silver-price-lowest-in-a-year-oil-inflation-fed-2026-10) and the central bank week preview (central-bank-week-fed-ecb-boj-2026-10-27).

Confirmed facts

• On Monday, 26 October, spot gold traded around $4,014.49 an ounce (+0.50%).^[1]
• On Friday, 23 October, spot gold dipped below $4,000 ($3,998.49), a three-month low and the first break below $4,000 since mid-July.^[2]
• December futures fell about 4.1% from the 16 October settlement ($4,181.10), the steepest weekly decline since June.^[2]
• 24/7 Wall St cites Brent above $117, 4.7% inflation expectations, high odds of a December hike and margin calls among the causes of the drop.^[2]
• On Monday oil fell about 2%: Brent near $114, WTI near $101; the 10-year US yield was about 4.99% versus a recent high of 5.31%.^[1]
• The Fed funds range is 3.75% to 4.00%; futures imply about a 90% chance of a hold at the 27 and 28 October meeting and about an 80% chance of at least one 25-basis-point hike by December.^[1]
• The Fed decision is due Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. New York time, Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m.; September PCE and advance Q3 GDP are due Thursday.^[1]
• According to Tuổi Trẻ, spot gold was about $4,016.74 an ounce at 7:30 a.m. Vietnam time on 27 October.^[3]
• SJC bars: 138.7 million dong per lượng to buy and 141.7 million to sell; the converted world price is about 126.2 million, so SJC's sell price is about 15.5 million higher.^[3]

Implications

• ConfirmedIn recent days gold has been moved by oil, bond yields and expectations for the Fed rate.
• Our readingIf the Fed signals that rates will rise, pressure on gold may return.
• Our readingLocal prices in dong, rupees and other currencies depend not only on the world price but also on the exchange rate and local market gaps.

Still unknown

• What the Fed will say and how the market will react on Wednesday.
• Where oil goes while the situation around the Strait of Hormuz stays unclear.
• Whether the rebound in gold holds after Thursday's PCE data.

Who it affects

Worldwide, United States, Vietnam. Anyone who follows the gold price or keeps savings in gold, in any country

Sources

1. Kitco: Gold rebounds above $4,000 as lower oil prices ease Fed tightening concerns October 26, 2026 · media
2. 24/7 Wall St: Gold just fell below $4,000 after its worst week in five months October 24, 2026 · media
3. Tuổi Trẻ: Giá vàng hôm nay 27-10: vàng thế giới vượt mốc 4.000 USD trước cuộc họp Fed October 27, 2026 · media