IEA: oil supply tops demand for the first time since the war began

What happened. The IEA published its November oil market report. It says world oil supply rose 2.3 million barrels a day in October to 105.4 million, up 5.3 million since August. Supply has overtaken demand for the first time since the war in Iran began, the agency says.

Where the oil comes from. Gulf exports, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million barrels a day in October. That is still 26% below pre-war levels. Crude recovered more: 15 million barrels a day, or 82% of pre-war flows.

Stocks. Observed world oil stocks rose by 52 million barrels in October, the first rise since June. Most of it was oil on tankers at sea. Stocks on land kept falling and are at their lowest since at least 2016. Since the war began, world stocks have fallen by 462 million barrels.

Prices and forecast. The IEA says North Sea Dated crude fell 32%, from a high of $136 a barrel on October 8 to about $93 when the report was written. Demand will fall 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.3 million, then rise 2 million in 2027. Reuters reports the IEA sees a surplus of about 3.8 million barrels a day in 2027 and will release 71 million more barrels from emergency stocks by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel.

Confirmed facts

• World oil supply rose 2.3 million barrels a day in October to 105.4 million, and 5.3 million since August.^[1]
• The IEA says oil supply has topped demand for the first time since the war in Iran began, and expects a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026.^[1][2]
• The IEA had earlier forecast a fourth-quarter supply deficit.^[2]
• Gulf exports excluding Oman reached 18.4 million barrels a day in October, 26% below pre-war levels.^[1]
• Observed oil stocks rose 52 million barrels in October, the first increase since June; stocks on land are the lowest since at least 2016.^[1]
• North Sea Dated fell 32%, from $136 a barrel in early October to about $93 when the report was written.^[1]
• Diesel in Europe costs about $180 a barrel, 77% above pre-war levels.^[1]
• Oil demand will fall 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.3 million and rise 2 million in 2027.^[1][2]
• IEA members will release 71 million more barrels of emergency stocks by the end of February, including 15 million barrels of diesel.^[2]

Implications

• ConfirmedWorld oil stocks have started rising for the first time since June.
• Our readingIf the surplus holds, oil and fuel could get cheaper and global inflation could slow.
• Our readingDiesel is still the bottleneck, so freight and goods prices may fall more slowly than crude.

Still unknown

• Whether attacks on tankers and energy sites in the Gulf continue.
• How fast refineries can raise diesel output.

Who it affects

World, Middle East, Europe. Anyone who follows oil, fuel and diesel prices, inflation and oil company shares

Sources

1. IEA: Oil Market Report - November 2026 November 13, 2026 · official
2. Reuters via Investing.com: World oil market is returning to surplus as Gulf exports recover, IEA says November 13, 2026 · media