Sweden inflation falls to 0.9% in October, below forecasts

What happened. SCB released its flash inflation estimate for October on November 5. These are preliminary numbers, published five working days before the regular release. CPI inflation fell from 1.1% in September to 0.9% in October. The monthly CPI change was 0.0%.

What CPIF is. It covers the same goods and services as CPI, but holds household mortgage rates constant. CPIF is the Riksbank's target measure. CPIF inflation fell from 1.5% to 1.1%, with a monthly change of 0.0%.

Lower still without energy. CPIF-XE, which is CPIF without energy, fell from 0.5% to 0.1%. It dropped 0.2% on the month. SCB statistician Mikael Nordin said the preliminary figures show a dampened inflation rate in October.

What was expected. Investing.com says the forecast was 1.2% for annual CPI and 0.3% for the monthly change. Both came in lower.

Why it matters. On November 4 the Riksbank raised its rate by 0.25 points to 2%, citing higher energy prices and supply disruptions. The October data show inflation is now below the bank's 2% target. How the bank weighs these numbers is not yet clear. This is our view.

What we don't know. Whether the final November 12 figures match the flash. Which goods and services pulled prices down most: SCB gives details on November 12. Whether the Riksbank changes its plans for a further hike.

Confirmed facts

• According to SCB flash data, CPI inflation fell from 1.1% in September to 0.9% in October 2026.^[1][2]
• The monthly CPI change from September to October was 0.0%.^[1][2]
• CPIF inflation fell from 1.5% to 1.1%, with a monthly change of 0.0%.^[1][2]
• CPIF-XE (CPIF excluding energy) fell from 0.5% to 0.1%, with a monthly change of minus 0.2%.^[1][2]
• CPIF is the Riksbank's target measure; it holds household mortgage rates constant.^[1]
• The forecast was 1.2% for annual CPI and 0.3% for the monthly change.^[2]
• SCB publishes final October figures on November 12, 2026, and the next flash estimate on December 4.^[1]
• On November 4 the Riksbank raised its policy rate to 2%, effective November 11.^[3]

Implications

• ConfirmedSwedish inflation slowed more than forecast in October on all three measures.
• ConfirmedCPIF target inflation is now below the Riksbank's 2% target.
• Our readingSoft numbers may lower the odds of a quick second rate hike. This is our view.

Still unknown

• Whether the final November 12 figures match the flash estimate
• Which price categories pulled inflation down most
• How the Riksbank will read these numbers

Who it affects

Sweden, Europe. Anyone with a loan or savings in Swedish krona, and anyone who follows European interest rates

Sources

1. Statistics Sweden (SCB): Flash CPI: Inflation rate 0.9 percent in October 2026 November 5, 2026 · official
2. Investing.com: Sweden's inflation slows more than forecast in October November 5, 2026 · media
3. Sveriges Riksbank: Policy rate raised to 2 per cent November 4, 2026 · official