The Fed's favourite inflation gauge: core PCE +0.3% in September
The PCE price index moved +0.5% in September, and +0.3% without food and energy, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on 29 October. Exactly as expected: the forecast was 0.3%.
Event: October 29, 2026
Primary source: October 29, 2026
Published here: October 29, 2026 at 12:31 PM UTC
Read: 1 min
What happened
The PCE price index moved +0.5% in September, and +0.3% without food and energy, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on 29 October. Over the year: 3.6%, core 3.1%.
Why it matters to you
PCE is the measure the Fed uses for its 2% inflation target. Exactly as expected: the forecast was 0.3%.
What to check and watch
Full BEA release linked below. This is not a forecast or advice to buy or sell.
The PCE price index moved +0.5% in September, and +0.3% without food and energy, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on 29 October. Over the year: 3.6%, core 3.1%.
PCE is the measure the Fed uses for its 2% inflation target. Exactly as expected: the forecast was 0.3%.
A hotter PCE usually pushes rate cuts further out; a cooler one brings them closer. This is our reading, not a fact from the release.
Full BEA release linked below. This is not a forecast or advice to buy or sell.
Confirmed facts
- The PCE price index moved +0.5% in September, and +0.3% without food and energy, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on 29 October.[1]
- Forecast for core PCE over the month: 0.3% (Forex Factory).[2]
Implications
- Our readingA hotter PCE usually pushes rate cuts further out; a cooler one brings them closer.
Still unknown
- What the Fed does at its next meeting.
- How markets react: an open question, not a forecast.
Who it affects
United States, Worldwide. Anyone with loans, savings, stocks, gold or crypto, and anyone following interest rates
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 October 29, 2026 · official
- Forex Factory: Economic calendar: consensus forecasts October 29, 2026 · media
Cover: Freekonomist graphic, a symbolic image, not a photo of the event. This is a news explainer, not financial advice.
More stories
Stock market news today: Nasdaq futures fall on AI spending fears
Stock market news today: Nasdaq futures are down more than 2% after Alphabet lost about $500bn in a day and Amazon and Intel added to worries about the cost of AI.
France GDP falls 0.1% in Q3 as exports slump
France's economy shrank 0.1% in July to September, while analysts expected slight growth. The main reason: exports fell 1.7%.
UK house prices: annual growth slows to 0.5%, weakest since January 2024
Per Nationwide, UK house prices were flat month on month in October and up just 0.5% on the year.
Morning brief by email
The night's key moves and what matters today, in 2 minutes. One-click unsubscribe.