Gold price today: spot slips below $4,000 as Fed hike bets firm

What happened. US inflation data landed on Tuesday. The consumer price index rose 0.4% in October on the month, while economists in a Reuters poll expected 0.3%. Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. Gold fell about 3% that day. On Wednesday spot gold settled at $3,987.93 an ounce, under $4,000. Early Thursday, Reuters had it near $3,979.09.

Why it is falling. Gold pays its owner nothing. When rates rise, cash and bonds pay more, and gold looks weaker. Gold is also priced in dollars. The dollar index rose 0.7% on Wednesday to 102.91, close to its yearly high of 102.94 set in October. For a buyer holding another currency, the ounce gets dearer.

What the Fed is saying. Before the data, Waller said that core inflation around 0.3% or higher could lead the Fed to consider a 50 basis point hike in December. The data reached that mark. Markets still price a 25 point hike as certain, and by CME FedWatch's reading on Wednesday the odds of a 50 point step were 11.5%. In September the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years.

Wednesday's swings. Gold tried to recover early Wednesday: by Anadolu's count, spot was near $4,070 at 09:30 GMT. By Reuters, it reached $4,066.77 during the session, then dropped under $4,000. Analysts at ING call the $4,000 zone a support, helped by central bank buying and strong physical demand in Asia. That is an analyst view, not a guarantee.

Local prices. In Egypt, Youm7 reports 24-carat gold at 7,017 pounds a gram on Thursday morning, unchanged from Wednesday's close. 21-carat was 6,140, 18-carat 5,263, and the gold pound 49,120. In the UAE, Gulf News reports the 24-carat gram at Dh487.75 on Wednesday at 11:00 Dubai time, against Dh485.00 a day earlier. Such prices are tied to the world ounce and the dollar rate, so they adjust with a lag.

What we do not know. We cannot say where the ounce will close Thursday or what the Fed will choose in December. The sources differ slightly on Wednesday's numbers ($3,986.79 from Reuters at 18:51 GMT and $3,987.93 at the settle from Investing.com), so we say "about".

Confirmed facts

• Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,979.09 an ounce at 00:22 GMT on Thursday, November 12, 2026; December US gold futures were at $3,984.50.^[1]
• On Wednesday, November 11, spot gold fell 1.1% to settle at $3,987.93 an ounce; futures settled at $3,994.30.^[3]
• On Wednesday at 18:51 GMT spot gold was at $3,986.79 after an intraday high of $4,066.77.^[2]
• Gold fell about 3% on Tuesday (2.67% by FXStreet's count).^[2][4]
• US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October on the month against a 0.3% forecast; core CPI rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.^[2][4]
• Before the data, Christopher Waller said core inflation around 0.3% or higher could lead the Fed to consider a 50 basis point hike in December.^[2][4]
• Traders fully price a 25 basis point Fed hike in December; in September the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years.^[3]
• CME FedWatch shows a 100% chance of a December hike; on Wednesday it put a 25 point step at 88.5% and a 50 point step at 11.5%.^[1][4]
• The dollar index rose 0.7% on Wednesday to 102.91; its yearly high of 102.94 was set in October.^[3][4]
• Higher rates make holding non-yielding gold costlier, and a stronger dollar makes it pricier for buyers in other currencies.^[2][3]
• ING analysts point to the $4,000 zone as support, helped by central bank buying and strong physical demand in Asia.^[3]
• Gold's yearly low, per FXStreet, is $3,870.23.^[4]
• On Wednesday at 09:30 GMT spot gold rose 0.6% to about $4,070.^[6]
• In Egypt, 24-carat gold was 7,017 pounds a gram on the morning of November 12, unchanged from Wednesday's close; 21-carat 6,140, 18-carat 5,263, gold pound 49,120.^[5]
• In the UAE, the 24-carat gram cost Dh487.75 on Wednesday at 11:00 Dubai time against Dh485.00 a day earlier.^[7]

Implications

• ConfirmedThe main pressures on gold named by the sources are expected Fed hikes and a strong dollar.
• ConfirmedLocal gold prices in Egypt and the UAE are tied to the world ounce and the dollar rate.
• Our readingIf the Fed chooses a 50 point step in December, the pressure on gold could last.
• Our readingThe $4,000 zone remains a level analysts watch; whether it holds is unknown.

Still unknown

• Where the world ounce will close Thursday.
• Which step the Fed will choose in December: 25 or 50 basis points.
• How fast local prices in Egypt and the UAE will adjust to the ounce.

Who it affects

Egypt, UAE, United States, World. People following the gold price, the Fed rate and the dollar, including readers in Egypt and the Gulf

Sources

1. Reuters (Arabic): الذهب يتراجع مع ارتفاع الدولار بعد بيانات التضخم الأمريكية November 12, 2026 · media
2. Reuters (Arabic): الذهب يتحول للانخفاض بضغط من زيادة التضخم وارتفاع الدولار November 11, 2026 · media
3. Investing.com: Gold drops for a second straight session on boost to Fed rate hike expectations November 11, 2026 · media
4. FXStreet: Gold struggles below $4,050 as Fed rate-hike bets boost US Dollar November 11, 2026 · media
5. Youm7: سعر الذهب عيار 24 اليوم الخميس 12 نوفمبر 2026 في مصر.. استقرار عند 7017 جنيها November 12, 2026 · media
6. Anadolu Agency: الذهب يتعافى جزئيا ويرتفع إلى 4070 دولارا للأونصة November 11, 2026 · media
7. Gulf News: Gold clings to $4,000 as December Fed hike bets firm November 11, 2026 · media