Japan wholesale inflation speeds up to 7.1%, above forecast

What happened. The Bank of Japan published preliminary producer price data for October 2026. The index rose 0.7% from September and 7.1% from October last year. Excluding summer electricity surcharges, the monthly rise was 0.9%. Reuters says the median market forecast was 6.5%, and the yearly rise in September was 6.8%.

What pushed prices. The biggest contributors to the monthly rise were petroleum and coal products (0.20 points), chemicals (0.15 points), electricity, gas and water (0.15 points) and steel (0.11 points). Farm products pulled the other way (minus 0.28 points), mainly rice and pork.

Imports. Yen-based import prices rose 3.3% on the month and 24.8% on the year. In contract currencies the rise was smaller: 2.3% on the month and 19.2% on the year. The gap shows that part of the increase comes from a weak yen: the dollar gained 1.0% against the yen over the month, by the Bank of Japan's numbers.

What next. Reuters says the data keeps alive expectations of a near-term rate hike. The Bank of Japan's release itself says nothing about rates. The next meeting is December 17-18.

Confirmed facts

• Japan's producer price index rose 0.7% month on month and 7.1% year on year in October 2026 (preliminary).^[1]
• Excluding summer electricity surcharges, the index rose 0.9% on the month.^[1]
• The yearly rise in September was 6.8%.^[1][2]
• The median market forecast was 6.5%.^[2]
• Yen-based import prices rose 3.3% on the month and 24.8% on the year; in contract currencies 2.3% and 19.2%.^[1]
• Export prices in contract currencies rose 0.6% on the month.^[1]
• Top contributors to the monthly rise: petroleum and coal 0.20 points, chemicals 0.15, electricity, gas and water 0.15, steel 0.11; farm products minus 0.28.^[1]
• The next Bank of Japan policy meeting is December 17-18.^[2]

Implications

• ConfirmedYearly producer price growth picked up again after slowing in August and September.
• ConfirmedReuters says the data keeps expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike alive.
• Our readingIf the Bank of Japan hikes, the yen could strengthen and borrowing in yen would get more expensive.

Still unknown

• Whether the Bank of Japan will hike in December.
• How fast producer price growth will pass through to consumer prices.
• The figures are preliminary and can be revised.

Who it affects

Japan, Asia, World. People watching the yen, Japanese stocks and central bank rates

Sources

1. Bank of Japan: Monthly Report on the Corporate Goods Price Index (Preliminary Figures for October 2026) November 11, 2026 · official
2. Reuters via Investing.com: Japan wholesale inflation accelerates, keeps alive BOJ rate-hike view November 12, 2026 · media