UAE PMI: firms raise prices at the fastest pace since 2009

What the survey shows. The UAE non-oil private sector PMI was 54.8 in October, after 55.3 in September. The PMI is a survey of about 1,000 companies: are their output, orders, staff and stocks growing. Above 50 means things are improving. Data were collected October 12 to 26.

Prices. Selling prices rose at the fastest rate in the survey's history, which started in August 2009. Input costs rose the most since June 2022. Firms paid more for raw materials, fuel, energy, freight, maintenance, storage and rent. S&P Global says firms are passing costs on to protect their margins.

Demand. New orders grew faster than in September, from new and repeat clients. New export work rose at the quickest rate in exactly two years. Output grew strongly, only a little slower than September's seven-month high. Firms named construction, retail, tourism and manufacturing. Some cited regional conflict, competition and weaker discretionary spending.

Jobs. Employment dipped slightly, the third fall in five months. Some firms cut staff to control costs. As a result, backlogs of work rose sharply again.

Dubai. The Dubai PMI rose to 54.6 from 54.5, an eight-month high. Selling prices in Dubai also rose at a record pace.

What next. Year-ahead expectations are the highest since January. S&P Global economist David Owen sees greater inflation risks in the fourth quarter, especially after several rises in petrol and diesel prices. This is an overview, not a forecast or advice.

Confirmed facts

• The S&P Global UAE PMI was 54.8 in October 2026, down from 55.3 in September.^[1][2]
• Non-oil selling prices rose at the fastest rate since the survey began in August 2009.^[1][2]
• Input costs rose at the fastest pace since June 2022.^[1][2]
• New export orders rose at the quickest rate in exactly two years.^[1][2]
• Employment dipped slightly, the third decline in five months.^[1][2]
• Year-ahead business expectations are the highest since January.^[1]
• The Dubai PMI rose to 54.6 from 54.5, an eight-month high.^[1]
• The survey covers about 1,000 companies; data were collected October 12-26, 2026.^[1]

Implications

• ConfirmedS&P Global sees greater inflation risks for the UAE in the fourth quarter.
• Our readingPrices for goods and services in the UAE may rise faster for buyers. That is our reading of the survey, not inflation data.
• Our readingNon-oil hiring stays cautious even as orders grow. That is our reading.

Still unknown

• How much official UAE inflation will rise
• Whether petrol and diesel keep getting more expensive
• Whether order growth holds if regional conditions change

Who it affects

UAE, Dubai, Middle East. People who live, work or run a business in the UAE, and anyone tracking inflation

Sources

1. S&P Global: S&P Global UAE PMI: Selling prices rise at record pace in October as cost pressures intensify November 4, 2026 · official
2. Reuters: UAE non-oil firms raise prices at record pace in October, PMI shows November 4, 2026 · media