Ukrainian currency: hryvnia hits record low vs dollar, then steadies

What happened. According to BBC News Ukraine, in the last days of October and early November the dollar rate jumped and set records almost daily. Queues formed at exchange points. The average official rate was 44.68 UAH per dollar for September and went above 45 UAH for October. On November 4 the official rate reached 45.66 UAH and then slowly eased. On the cash market the average rate peaked at 46.96 UAH on the last day of October and, by November 4, was down by almost 80 kopecks.

Reason one: less currency on the market. The NBU points to a sharp drop in earnings from exporters, mainly metal producers and farmers. They lost access to foreign markets because of attacks on Black Sea ports, the country's main export artery. Aid from international partners was also delayed, and in September the government had to cut budget spending.

Reason two: more demand. When external funding resumed in late October and early November, demand for currency rose, partly because budget spending resumed. A large share goes to energy projects and resilience, which need imports such as equipment and spare parts. The NBU also named higher demand from households at the start of the month and the reset of monthly limits on buying currency.

What the NBU says. There is no shortage of cash foreign currency in the financial system. At the peak of demand the NBU offered banks up to 100 million dollars and 100 million euros of non-cash currency to swap for cash. Banks applied for only 14 million dollars, and the NBU met the requests in full. Reserves passed 47 billion dollars in October. In the last working week of October, though, the NBU sold 1.8 billion dollars on the interbank market. That is a record volume of interventions.

Where it stands now. The NBU official rate for November 9 is 45.3206 UAH per dollar. RBC-Ukraine, citing Minfin, reports that on the morning of November 9 exchange points sold dollars at an average of 46.33 UAH and banks at 46.00 UAH. For comparison, the 2026 budget assumes an average of 45.7 UAH per dollar and the 2027 draft budget 47.1 UAH. Those are budget assumptions, not a rate forecast.

Who it affects. People in Ukraine, importers, exporters, and anyone sending money in or out of the country. We make no rate forecasts.

Confirmed facts

• In the last days of October and early November the dollar set near-daily records in Ukraine and queues formed at exchange points. By the end of the week the rush faded and the hryvnia firmed a little.^[1]
• The average official rate was 44.68 UAH per dollar for September and exceeded 45 UAH for October.^[1]
• On November 4 the official rate reached 45.66 UAH per dollar and then slowly eased.^[1]
• On the cash market the average rate peaked at 46.96 UAH per dollar on the last day of October and, by November 4, fell by almost 80 kopecks.^[1]
• The NBU explains the weaker hryvnia by lower currency supply and higher demand.^[1]
• The inflow fell because earnings from exporters, mainly metal producers and farmers, dropped after they lost access to foreign markets because of attacks on Black Sea ports.^[1]
• Demand rose after external funding and budget spending resumed, and also from household demand at the start of the month and the reset of monthly limits on buying currency.^[1]
• The NBU offered banks up to 100 million dollars and 100 million euros of non-cash currency to swap for cash. Banks applied for 14 million dollars and the NBU met the requests in full.^[1]
• Reserves passed 47 billion dollars in October. In the last working week of October the NBU sold 1.8 billion dollars on the interbank market, a record volume of interventions.^[1]
• The 2026 budget assumes an average dollar rate of 45.7 UAH and the 2027 draft budget 47.1 UAH.^[1]
• The official NBU rate for November 9, 2026 is 45.3206 UAH per US dollar.^[2]
• On the morning of November 9, per Minfin, exchange points sold dollars at an average of 46.33 UAH and banks at 46.00 UAH.^[3]

Implications

• ConfirmedThe records had two confirmed drivers: less currency from exporters and more demand after budget spending resumed.
• ConfirmedAt the start of this week the rate is well below the peak: 45.3206 UAH per NBU data against 45.66 UAH on November 4.
• Our readingIf export earnings stay under pressure and demand stays high, the rate could move sharply again. This is our view.

Still unknown

• How soon earnings from exporters recover
• How demand for currency will change in the coming weeks
• What the NBU will say about the currency market in its next statements

Who it affects

Ukraine, World. People who follow the hryvnia rate, pay or earn in dollars, and anyone who tracks currency markets

Sources

1. BBC News Україна: Стрибок долара в Україні: що відбувається на валютному ринку і чого чекати November 7, 2026 · media
2. National Bank of Ukraine: Official exchange rate, USD, 09.11.2026 November 9, 2026 · official
3. РБК-Україна: Курс валют на 9 листопада: долар та євро подешевшали в банках і обмінниках November 9, 2026 · media